Wood Mackenzie: It's expected that global PV newly installed capacity can reach 148GW in 2021.
By the end of 2020, the global cumulative PV installed capacity is close to 750GW. Of course, it includes floating PV systems
. Despite the impact of COVID-19, the global PV market performed better than expected in 2020.
The boom will continue in 2021. And the PV newly installed capacity is expected to reach 148GW worldwide, which is an 11% increase over the previous year, according to Wood Mackenzie's latest forecast. The compound annual growth rate for the next five years is 7 per cent. It is expected that the new capacity will pass 200GW in 2026, while it will only take seven years before the first 100GW annual increment is reached in 2019.
01. Asia-Pacific Market
China will remain the largest PV market in Asia Pacific and globally. It is expected that the newly installed capacity of PV systems in 2021 will repeat the record of more than 50GW set in 2017. In February this year, the National Energy Administration issued a draft for soliciting opinions on the weight of renewable energetic power consumption responsibility in 2021. China will put forward suggestions on the consumption target for the next ten years. At the same time, the 14th Five-Year Plan issued by various provinces and regions has emphasized the importance of new energy and its development potential, and some provinces and regions have formulated photovoltaic installation targets and plans. Strong policy support will support the development of the photovoltaic industry.
Increments in the remaining markets may be about the same as that in 2020. It is expected that 13.8GW will be increased in the Vietnamese market in 2020 due to the removal of subsidies, and the annual new installation volume in the following years is expected to hover around 3-4GW. The Indian market has been particularly affected by COVID-19, with market instability increasing sharply.
02. European Market
The European Commission's 55% decarburization target by 2030 is a positive signal for the market, and the photovoltaic industry is also seen as an important means to achieve the target. By 2024. It is expected that Europe will overtake North America to regain its position as the world's second largest regional PV market.
03. Latin American Market
Wood Mackenzie expects that 11.3GW of PV capacity will be installed in Latin America in 2021. Brazil will overtake Mexico as the main market.
04. US Market
It is expected that the positive policy can support market development in the United States over the next five years. The government proposed a clean energy standard and a zero-carbon grid goal by 2035. At the climate summit in April, the Biden administration announced that the United States would reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 50 percent to 52 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. The ITC policy will officially extend for two years in December 2020, which will enable the U.S. market to add 25GW of capacity annually over the next six years. Meanwhile, a proposed ten-year extension of the ITC is making its way through Congress.
05. Middle East and Africa Market
In the Middle East, a large number of PV constructions were delayed caused by last year's epidemic. It is expected to recover in 2021 with a new capacity of more than 6.3GW. The new capacity in the Africa region will increase to 4.2GW in 2021 and 9.7GW in 2022.