Development trend: triple transformation of efficiency, globalization, and ecologization
Technological trend: deep integration of efficient materials and intelligent systems
In the future, floating photovoltaic technology will evolve around the dual main lines of "improving power generation efficiency" and "enhancing system reliability":
Breakthrough in efficient materials. The laboratory efficiency of perovskite/crystalline silicon stacked solar cells has exceeded 33%. Its weak light power generation and customizable color characteristics will promote the upgrade of floating photovoltaics from "functional" to "aesthetic". Transparent conductive film technology can increase the transmittance of components to 85%, reducing the light suppression on underwater ecology.
Intelligent system integration. Floating photovoltaic solutions will be combined with the Internet of Things (IoT) and artificial intelligence (AI) to achieve remote monitoring and autonomous operation and maintenance. For example, Huawei Digital Energy's "Intelligent Photovoltaic Storage System" optimizes the matching of photovoltaic power generation and energy storage through AI algorithms, improving system efficiency by 15%. Sunshine Power's "drone inspection platform" can quickly identify component failures, floating body offsets, and other issues, reducing operation and maintenance costs by 40%.
Enhanced adaptability to marine environment. For the Far East Sea project, the industry will develop technologies such as anti-level 17 typhoon floating bodies, anti-salt spray corrosion coatings, and self-healing anchoring systems. For example, the "Deep Sea Photovoltaic Platform" developed by CNOOC uses dynamic positioning technology and can operate stably in deep sea areas up to 100 kilometers offshore.
The "2024-2029 Analysis Report on Investment Potential and Development Prospects of China's Floating Photovoltaic Industry" by Zhongyan Puhua Industrial Research Institute predicts that by 2030, the efficiency of floating photovoltaic modules will exceed 28%, system costs will be reduced to below 1.0 yuan/W, and technological integration will promote its transformation from a "power generation unit" to a "marine energy hub".
Market trends: precise penetration of global layout and segmented scenarios
The floating photovoltaic market will present the characteristics of "global competition+localized services":
The rise of emerging markets. The Middle East region has become a floating photovoltaic incremental market due to abundant light resources and rapid growth in electricity demand. Saudi Arabia's "Vision 2030" plans to invest $30 billion to build floating photovoltaic projects, combining seawater desalination and hydrogen production to achieve energy self-sufficiency. African countries have installed floating photovoltaic systems on irrigation ponds through the "photovoltaic+agriculture" model to enhance the reliability of agricultural electricity.
Deepen the segmentation of scenarios. The industrial and commercial sectors achieve peak valley arbitrage through "photovoltaic+energy storage", with an IRR exceeding 15%. The fishing industry adopts a "zero feed cost+power generation revenue" model to reduce aquaculture risks. Public facilities achieve coordinated optimization of energy and communication through "photovoltaic+5G base stations". For example, the household floating photovoltaic system launched by Skyworth New Energy does not require users to pay initial investment and can recover costs within 5 years through the sharing of power generation profits.
Industrial chain collaboration. Photovoltaic companies (such as LONGi and Tongwei) and ocean engineering companies (such as CIMC Raffles and Zhenhua Heavy Industries) have connected the entire chain from module production to offshore installation through equity cooperation, joint research and development, and other means. For example, Longi and CIMC Raffles have established a joint venture to jointly develop an integrated solution of "anti-typhoon floating body+high-efficiency components".
Zhongyan Puhua pointed out that market expansion needs to balance "efficiency" and "differentiation", and build global competitiveness by adapting technology to local needs and providing services that are close to local users.
Ecological trend: dual upgrade of circular economy and social responsibility
The sustainable development of the floating photovoltaic industry needs to address two major challenges: resource consumption and ecological impact.
Circular economy model. Component recycling technology can extract precious metals such as silver and silicon, reducing dependence on raw materials. For example, the component recycling factory established by Trina Solar has a silver recovery rate of 95% and can save costs of 20,000 yuan per ton of recycled materials. The European Union's Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment Directive (WEEE) requires floating photovoltaic companies to take responsibility for recycling, promoting the industry's transition to a closed-loop economy.
Low carbon manufacturing certification. The global carbon tariff policy is forcing companies to adopt green technologies. For example, JinkoSolar has reduced carbon emissions in the production process by 25% through silicon material recycling technology. Longi Corporation's "zero carbon factory" achieves a 40% reduction in product lifecycle carbon footprint through photovoltaic power generation and green power procurement.
Ecological restoration responsibility. Floating photovoltaic projects need to undergo an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) to avoid impacts on bird migration and marine life. For example, the "Photovoltaic+Fishery" project in Rudong County, Jiangsu Province avoided the Chinese sturgeon conservation area during the planning phase, adopted low-noise construction equipment, and deployed artificial reefs for ecological restoration.
The "2024-2029 Analysis Report on Investment Potential and Development Prospects of China's Floating Photovoltaic Industry" by China Research Institute Puhua Industry Research Institute emphasizes that ecological development will reshape the industry logic, shifting from "environmental adaptation" to "environmental restoration", and promote the transformation of the entire industry chain towards a circular economy.
Future outlook: challenges and opportunities coexist
Despite the enormous potential of the floating photovoltaic market, the industry still faces three major challenges.
Firstly, there is a lack of uniformity in technical standards. There are significant differences in global standards for floating photovoltaics, with Chinese standards emphasizing structural safety, EU standards emphasizing electrical performance, and US standards focusing on fire ratings, increasing export costs for enterprises. We need to strengthen mutual recognition of international standards and promote the global adoption of a set of standards.
Secondly, the initial investment cost is high. The cost of floating photovoltaic systems is 1.8 to 2.2 times that of land-based photovoltaics. Although the cost per kilowatt hour has dropped to below 0.35 yuan/KWh, users are sensitive to the investment return cycle. We need to lower the threshold through the "zero down payment+revenue sharing" model, or rely on policy subsidies to improve economic efficiency.
Thirdly, there is insufficient ecological impact assessment. Insufficient research on the impact of some projects on water flow fields and biodiversity has raised public concerns. We need to establish a long-term ecological monitoring mechanism and win social trust through transparent data.
The opportunities are equally significant. The global "dual carbon" goal drives the growth of demand for renewable energy, and floating photovoltaics, as an efficient and low-carbon form of energy, will become the core carrier of marine economy and energy transformation. Zhongyan Puhua predicts that the global floating photovoltaic market size will exceed 200 billion yuan by 2030, with China's share expected to reach 50%. Technological integration and global layout will become the key to enterprise competition.
